The Black Swan: The Impact Of The Highly Improbable

The phenomenal international bestseller that shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. 'Taleb is a bouncy and even exhilarating guide ... I came to relish what he said, and even develop a sneaking affection for him as a person' Will Self, Independent on Sunday 'He leaps like some superhero of the mind' Boyd Tonkin, Independent 'Funny, quirky and thought-provoking ... confirms his status as a guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and aspirant despot' John Cornwell, Sunday Times 'Idiosyncratically brilliant' Niall Ferguson, Sunday Telegraph 'Great fun ... brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious, cajoling' Stephen J. Dubner, Co-Author of FreakonomicsGiá sản phẩm trên Tiki đã bao gồm thuế theo luật hiện hành. Bên cạnh đó, tuỳ vào loại sản phẩm, hình thức và địa chỉ giao hàng mà có thể phát sinh thêm chi phí khác như phí vận chuyển, phụ phí hàng cồng kềnh, thuế nhập khẩu (đối với đơn hàng giao từ nước ngoài có giá trị trên 1 triệu đồng).....