Sách Ngoại văn: The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Thông tin sản phẩm: ISBN 9780812973815 Tác giả Nassim Nicholas Taleb NXB Random House Inc Năm XB 11/05/2010 Trọng lượng (gr) 340 Kích thướcì 132.08 x 200.66 x 27.94 Số trang 444 Hình thức Bìa Mềm Ngôn ngữ Tiếng Anh Giới thiệu sản phẩm Best Self-Help Books for Women Business, Finance & Law Foreign Book - Collection - New - Penguin Books Sản phẩm bán chạy nhất Top 100 sản phẩm Business & Management bán chạy của tháng The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a New Section: "On Robustness and Fragility" "The Black Swan "is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don t understand. The other books in the series are "Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, "and "The Bed of Procrustes." A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the impossible.